Risk and reward
Risk Management

Risk and reward

6 cards and 4 quick questions. About 2 min.

The lesson in full

  1. Risking 100 to maybe win 50 isn't the same bet as risking 100 to maybe win 300. Risk-reward puts a number on that choice before you trade.

  2. Risk 100 (the distance to your stop) to aim for 200 (the distance to your target): that's 1:2. You aim to win twice what you risk.

  3. With 1:2, you only need to win about 1 trade in 3 (33%) to break even, before costs. With 1:3, about 1 in 4 (25%).

  4. Example: 10 trades at 1:2, risking 100 each. You win only 4 (40%): 4 × 200 − 6 × 100 = +200. Wrong most of the time, and still ahead.

  5. Common mistake

    Mistake: setting far-away targets just to make the ratio look good. A 1:10 target that price almost never reaches is worse than a realistic 1:2.

  6. Key takeaway

    Know your risk and reward before you enter. Good risk-reward lets you be wrong often and still come out ahead.

Quick check

  1. Risk US$50 to make US$150 is... 1:3You risk 1 unit to aim for 3: 50 to 150.
  2. With 1:2 risk-reward, the break-even win rate is about... 33%Win rate needed = risk ÷ (risk + reward) = 1 ÷ 3, about 33%.
  3. Can you be wrong most of the time and still profit? Yes, if wins are bigger than lossesWith 1:2, winning 4 of 10 trades still leaves you ahead.
  4. Why isn't a 1:10 target automatically better than 1:2? Price may rarely reach itA ratio only helps if the target is realistic. Fewer wins can cancel the bigger payout.

Words in this lesson

Risk Management

  1. Your safety exit: stop loss
  2. How much to risk
  3. Risk and reward
  4. Win rate isn't everything
  5. The maths of losses
  6. Staying in the game
  7. Backtesting and overfitting
Practise it now: Stop Loss Sniper Practise it now: Survival Math Practise it now: Martingale Trap
Try it with live numbersProfit calculatorProfit, loss and risk/reward of a trade