The lesson in full
Risking 100 to maybe win 50 isn't the same bet as risking 100 to maybe win 300. Risk-reward puts a number on that choice before you trade.
Risk 100 (the distance to your stop) to aim for 200 (the distance to your target): that's 1:2. You aim to win twice what you risk.
With 1:2, you only need to win about 1 trade in 3 (33%) to break even, before costs. With 1:3, about 1 in 4 (25%).
Example: 10 trades at 1:2, risking 100 each. You win only 4 (40%): 4 × 200 − 6 × 100 = +200. Wrong most of the time, and still ahead.
- Common mistake
Mistake: setting far-away targets just to make the ratio look good. A 1:10 target that price almost never reaches is worse than a realistic 1:2.
- Key takeaway
Know your risk and reward before you enter. Good risk-reward lets you be wrong often and still come out ahead.
Quick check
- Risk US$50 to make US$150 is... 1:3You risk 1 unit to aim for 3: 50 to 150.
- With 1:2 risk-reward, the break-even win rate is about... 33%Win rate needed = risk ÷ (risk + reward) = 1 ÷ 3, about 33%.
- Can you be wrong most of the time and still profit? Yes, if wins are bigger than lossesWith 1:2, winning 4 of 10 trades still leaves you ahead.
- Why isn't a 1:10 target automatically better than 1:2? Price may rarely reach itA ratio only helps if the target is realistic. Fewer wins can cancel the bigger payout.
Words in this lesson
Risk Management
- Your safety exit: stop loss
- How much to risk
- Risk and reward
- Win rate isn't everything
- The maths of losses
- Staying in the game
- Backtesting and overfitting