The lesson in full
Energy is in everything: transport, factories, fertiliser, your electricity bill. When its price jumps suddenly, that's an energy shock, and the whole economy feels it.
1973: Arab oil producers cut supplies to countries backing Israel. Oil prices roughly quadrupled within months, and years of high inflation and weak growth followed.
2022: after Russia invaded Ukraine, oil jumped above US$120 (chart), and Europe's gas prices at their peak were more than ten times their normal level.
Energy feeds into transport and food, so inflation follows. Eurozone inflation hit a record 10.6%, and in September 2022 Indonesia raised subsidised fuel prices by about 30%.
Winners and losers: exporters like Norway, Saudi Arabia and Canada earn more; importers like Japan, India and much of Europe pay more, and their currencies can suffer.
- Common mistake
Mistake: thinking a shock lasts forever. High prices cut demand and bring new supply: Europe's gas prices fell back a long way in 2023.
- Key takeaway
Energy shocks push up inflation everywhere, help exporters and hurt importers, and usually fade as supply and demand adjust.
Quick check
- An energy shock is... A sudden jump in energy pricesOil, gas or coal prices spike, often because of war or supply cuts.
- Energy shocks usually push inflation... UpEnergy costs feed into transport, food and almost everything else.
- Who can benefit from high oil prices? Oil exportersCountries that sell oil earn more for every barrel.
- Why do energy shocks raise food prices too? Transport and fertiliser need energyHigher fuel and fertiliser costs flow through to what we pay at the shop.
Geopolitics
- Wars and oil prices
- Energy shocks
- Sanctions and markets
- Elections and markets
- Shipping routes that move prices
- Tariffs and trade wars
- Pandemics and markets