The lesson in full
Once a month, one US report can move the dollar, gold, stocks and your home currency within seconds: nonfarm payrolls, or NFP.
NFP counts how many jobs the US added last month, outside farms. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
The same report gives the unemployment rate and wage growth. It also revises earlier months: in August 2025, revisions cut 258,000 jobs from May and June.
Friday 2 August 2024: the July report showed just 114,000 new jobs against about 175,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.3%. The dollar and US stocks fell.
USD/JPY, mid-July to mid-August 2024. The yen was already strengthening, and the weak report sped it up: USD/JPY fell from about 150 to about 144 by Monday 5 August. That day, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped about 12%.
- Common mistake
Myth: "Strong jobs always lift stocks." Reality: very strong jobs can mean high rates for longer, which can push stocks down. Compare with the forecast, then think about the Fed.
- Key takeaway
On NFP day, know the forecast, expect wide spreads and fast moves at 8:30, and read the whole report, not just the headline.
Quick check
- NFP counts... New US jobs outside farmsNonfarm means outside farms: NFP counts new jobs across most of the US economy.
- NFP is usually released... On the first Friday of the monthIt usually comes out on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
- Besides the jobs number, traders watch... Unemployment and wage growthAll three are in the same report, and together they show how healthy the US job market is.
- In August 2024, US jobs came in far below forecast. The dollar... FellWeak jobs made traders expect faster Fed rate cuts, and lower expected rates tend to weaken a currency.
Words in this lesson
Market-Moving News
- The economic calendar
- Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
- How inflation is measured
- FOMC day
- Hawks and doves
- Priced in