Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
Market-Moving News

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

7 cards and 4 quick questions. About 2 min.

The lesson in full

  1. Once a month, one US report can move the dollar, gold, stocks and your home currency within seconds: nonfarm payrolls, or NFP.

  2. NFP counts how many jobs the US added last month, outside farms. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

  3. The same report gives the unemployment rate and wage growth. It also revises earlier months: in August 2025, revisions cut 258,000 jobs from May and June.

  4. Friday 2 August 2024: the July report showed just 114,000 new jobs against about 175,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.3%. The dollar and US stocks fell.

  5. USD/JPY, mid-July to mid-August 2024. The yen was already strengthening, and the weak report sped it up: USD/JPY fell from about 150 to about 144 by Monday 5 August. That day, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped about 12%.

  6. Common mistake

    Myth: "Strong jobs always lift stocks." Reality: very strong jobs can mean high rates for longer, which can push stocks down. Compare with the forecast, then think about the Fed.

  7. Key takeaway

    On NFP day, know the forecast, expect wide spreads and fast moves at 8:30, and read the whole report, not just the headline.

Quick check

  1. NFP counts... New US jobs outside farmsNonfarm means outside farms: NFP counts new jobs across most of the US economy.
  2. NFP is usually released... On the first Friday of the monthIt usually comes out on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
  3. Besides the jobs number, traders watch... Unemployment and wage growthAll three are in the same report, and together they show how healthy the US job market is.
  4. In August 2024, US jobs came in far below forecast. The dollar... FellWeak jobs made traders expect faster Fed rate cuts, and lower expected rates tend to weaken a currency.

Words in this lesson

Market-Moving News

  1. The economic calendar
  2. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
  3. How inflation is measured
  4. FOMC day
  5. Hawks and doves
  6. Priced in
Practise it now: Data Drop Practise it now: Basket Case Practise it now: Fed Day
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